This is very similar to conclusions from Vulnerable world hypothesis. The purpose of this is to focus on one vector and simplify what it refers to.
Given the ever-increasing impact of technology, global catastrophes seem inevitable. Every system is subject to forces that strengthens it and threatens it. Even if the destabilizing forces are rare, on a long enough timelines, one of them will get traction and cause an existential catastrophe.
<aside> 💡 Written in ‣ way
</aside>
Given the ever-increasing impact of technology, global catastrophes seem inevitable.
Every system is subject to forces that strengthens it and threatens it.
There are cancerous cells in organisms
Enders in humans. There is predictable number of “Enders” people who try to kill large amount of others. In China there is a percentage of people who decide to do mass-killings as in US. However, in China they go with knives, and in US because of ubiquitousness of guns, they go with guns.
In each nation there seems to be a similar percentage of "Enders" - individuals inclined towards causing widespread harm [I heard this on a podcast End Games – Naval Ravikant on Rob Reid Show Please send Anonymous feedback to verify that].
In places like China, where guns are less accessible, such individuals might resort to knives for mass attacks. However, in the U.S., with the widespread availability of firearms, they often turn to guns. That’s the reason we hear of US ones and not Chinese ones. That’s likely why we hear more about mass shootings in the U.S. than such incidents in China.
Even if the destabilizing forces are rare, on a long enough timelines, one of them will get traction and unleash the existential catastrophe.
That is a catastrophe of the system’s size.